barcode wrote:The SNP's rise began in 2011, when it got its majority government, strangely in 2012 it got manged to remain the biggest party in votes setas and shares in council elections, It only managed to retain 7 councils. While labour took outright control of three, which is pretty good going and also managed to regain a number of other councils. So the SNP bandwagon is going up and down.
Since 2014 SNP/YES its lost around 200'000, to be fair NO side 500'000 voters, I bet most of these just dont give a crap. The other problem is turnout for Holyrood is poor at only 50%.
With the by elections again is up and down, Glenrothes in 2008 turnout was similar to election in 2005 and Labour actually got more votes. SNP is spread across the Scotland while Labour seems, its core support is staying strong, around 25%?
By the very definition of a 'rise' it cannot have begun in 2011 when they got their majority government, a rise would have had to have been before then. There are many points in history where the SNP rise was said to begin, but 2011 is not one of them. As a movement with any success, the SNP's rise began in the mid-60s reaching a peak in the 1974 elections when they gained 7 then 11 seats. Due to the Labour minority government in the late-70s, the SNP were able to exert some influence including getting a devolution referendum - due to some unfair and bizarre technicalities the referendum didn't pass despite a 51.6% yes vote. The SNP were then set back a bit under the Consevatives although managed to gain some votes playing off of resentment at the Conservative government in Scotland, when New Labour came to power the SNP got another referendum and so began another rise which ended in an SNP minority administration and then an SNP majority government. The SNP's support did the average 'in government' thing of falling in 2013 and early 2014 before a huge surge in late 2014 in the aftermath of the Scottish Independence Referendum when the entire Scottish political climate changed. In two months the SNP went from neck and neck with Labour in polls to having over a 20% lead, within a year this had increased to over 25%.
Given the huge upheaval in Scottish politics that happened in September 2014 you cannot seriously keep pointing to pre-indie ref local council results as any kind of indication of SNP performance this year. The SNP bandwagon isn't going up and down, it's continuously going up. Your paragraph about Yes and No side losing voters I have no understanding of. The SNP and Scottish Green Party (Yes) saw a massive increase in party members in the aftermath of the referendum and the SNP went on to do somewhat quite well at the UK general election, in case you missed that.
Plus highlighting that turnout at the last Holyrood election was only 50.3% is once again showing that you are ignoring the post-referendum upsurge in political interest in Scotland. In 2010 the Scottish turnout at the general election was 63.8%, in 2015 the turnout was 71.1% (higher if you remove Glasgow from the equation) an increase of 8%. In the Scottish Independence Referendum turnout was 84.6%, up 24% on the previous Scottish referendum. Furthermore the latest Survation Scottish Attitudes Poll, 'Definitely would vote' is at 70.2% - that is 77% for SNP voters compared to 74% for Labour voters.
A few over highlights from the poll that undermine your 'SNP not doing so well' argument are
- a positive net satisfaction rating for the government on every issue (something a UK government would kill for)
- 21% of 2014 'No' voters saying they'll vote SNP in the constituency element
- 10% of 2015 Labour voters saying they'll vote SNP in the constituency element
- Constituency vote leads in every region ranging from 14.5% (South Scotland and actually against the Conservatives) to 47% (Glasgow)
- Double digit leads in every age group, socioeconomic group, gender and region in both regional and constituency voting intention (except South Scotland regional)
- only a 1.6% lead for a 'No' vote in the event of a Second Indie Ref
- Leadership ratings - David Cameron -31, Jeremy Corbyn -17, Tim Farron -8, Nicola Sturgeon +27, Willie Rennie -7, Kezia Dugdale -9, Ruth Davidson -6, Patrick Harvie +/- 0.
- Leadership ratings among party's own voters - David Cameron +68, Jeremy Corbyn +6, Tim Farron +34 and Nicola Sturgeon +90.
So really is the SNP bandwagon actually going down? Can you seriously say they aren't going to clean up on May 5th? And can you seriously reiterate that Labour aren't doing that badly in Scotland given that on the regional vote they are now polling 3rd in Lothian and Mid Scotland & Fife, 5th in Highlands and Islands and only have a 0.1% lead over the Conservatives in North East Scotland.