The Next Big election: May 2016.

Alexia
Posts: 2972
Joined: Sat 01 Oct, 2005 17.50

barcode wrote:Fife could go against SNP over the Forth bridge, Aberdeenshire go also go against SNP over the OIL.
Yes, because the structural condition of a 50-year old bridge and the international slowdown in oil prices are both the SNP's fault.

Who's building a new bridge at Queensferry? Who abolished the Forth tolls?
jonathan
Posts: 65
Joined: Mon 06 Jan, 2014 01.43

Alexia wrote:
barcode wrote:Fife could go against SNP over the Forth bridge, Aberdeenshire go also go against SNP over the OIL.
Yes, because the structural condition of a 50-year old bridge and the international slowdown in oil prices are both the SNP's fault.

Who's building a new bridge at Queensferry? Who abolished the Forth tolls?
The component that failed was to be replaced four years ago. Priorities changed when the SNP cut the maintenance budget and this work wasn't carried out.

Yes, the SNP are delivering the new bridge, but they should not have neglected the old one. Perhaps they wouldn't have had to, had the tolls not been abolished. I reckon a lot of people dependant on the bridge would rather have paid tolls than have to deal with the near three week closure.
barcode
Posts: 1473
Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

jonathan wrote:
Alexia wrote:
barcode wrote:Fife could go against SNP over the Forth bridge, Aberdeenshire go also go against SNP over the OIL.
Yes, because the structural condition of a 50-year old bridge and the international slowdown in oil prices are both the SNP's fault.
Who's building a new bridge at Queensferry? Who abolished the Forth tolls?
The component that failed was to be replaced four years ago. Priorities changed when the SNP cut the maintenance budget and this work wasn't carried out.
Yes, the SNP are delivering the new bridge, but they should not have neglected the old one. Perhaps they wouldn't have had to, had the tolls not been abolished. I reckon a lot of people dependant on the bridge would rather have paid tolls than have to deal with the near three week closure.
Bingo, when the tolls come off it was the SNP government who had to pay for the repairs directly, but in 2010 cut the budget for the bridge by 58%, so bye bye Trust end links repairs. No magic talk from the SNP can cover up this fact. I nor many others believe HGV will be allowed back on that bridge.

Ah yes the oil, the same Oil which sir alex claimed the days of cheap oil are over, he got that wrong. What a shame for the 65'000 Job. Whats being done to help them? not alot.
Alexia
Posts: 2972
Joined: Sat 01 Oct, 2005 17.50

You probably only reckon that because it fits in with your political ideology. I reckon that most people would prefer a free bridge.

And no-one saw the global slowdown in oil prices coming. And they can just as soon shoot back up again.
barcode
Posts: 1473
Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

Alexia wrote:You probably only reckon that because it fits in with your political ideology. I reckon that most people would prefer a free bridge.

And no-one saw the global slowdown in oil prices coming. And they can just as soon shoot back up again.
Left wing ideology which both the SNP and Labour are from? What I want is a SAFE and OPEN bridge, you still wont talk about the budget cuts.... This is what happens when you let thing get into a state of disrepair...

People did see the oil price, since USA has increase fracking, plus Iran coming out of the cold, resulting in more surly.
barcode
Posts: 1473
Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

Alexia wrote:You probably only reckon that because it fits in with your political ideology. I reckon that most people would prefer a free bridge.

And no-one saw the global slowdown in oil prices coming. And they can just as soon shoot back up again.
Left wing ideology which both the SNP and Labour are from? What I want is a SAFE and OPEN bridge, you still wont talk about the budget cuts.... This is what happens when you let thing get into a state of disrepair...

People did see the oil price, since USA has increase fracking, plus Iran coming out of the cold, resulting in more surly.
Alexia
Posts: 2972
Joined: Sat 01 Oct, 2005 17.50

The USA would have increased fracking anyway, because "enough" is never "enough" for them, they want "more".

As for Iran, that could go tits up tomorrow if a Republican gets the White House.
bilky asko
Posts: 1171
Joined: Sat 08 Nov, 2008 19.48

Alexia wrote:And no-one saw the global slowdown in oil prices coming. And they can just as soon shoot back up again.
It's common knowledge that oil prices are volatile. The SNP massively underplayed that and made the idea of Scotland becoming the next Dubai seem like a piece of piss.

Whether or not anyone could predict a particular rise and fall, they shouldn't be surprising in general.
Image
DTV
Posts: 125
Joined: Mon 12 Mar, 2012 19.27

barcode wrote:Its claimed Labour could lose all the Constituency seats, somehow I doubt it, since the seats are smaller than MP, and SNP were unable to win a few of the By elections. Fife could go against SNP over the Forth bridge, Aberdeenshire go also go against SNP over the OIL.


Most people are dissatisfied with both DC and JC!

Satisfaction with David Cameron as Prime Minister:
Satisfied: 42%
Dissatisfied: 51%

Satisfaction with Jeremy Corbyn as Labour Party leader:
Satisfied: 31%
Dissatisfied: 49%
NET: -18
NET: -9
Size of the constituencies and local by-elections have very little relevance in predicting the outcome of the Scottish general election. People vote differently in local elections and nobody turns up for them let alone local byelections. The fact that Holyrood constituencies are smaller in area than Westminster constituencies is only really going to benefit the Lib Dems in that Orkney and Shetland are separate constituencies and the Conservatives on the Border where they can pick up a few seats.

If you actually look at the opinion polls in any depth you'll see that though the SNP don't poll as well in the Mid Scotland and Fife, the still have a lead of over 15% over Labour. Aberdeenshire's region, North East Scotland, is the SNP's second highest polling region after Glasgow and with an almost 40% lead over Labour it is highly unlikely that the SNP won't win all the Aberdeenshire seats. While Nationally Labour are still the second placed party, there are now two regions where they don't even poll second - Including Highlands and Islands where they are currently polling below the SNP, the Conservatives, Lib Dems and Others in the Constituency vote. Disaffected SNP voters aren't going to return to Labour unless it's the independence project they are disaffected with.

With the leader satisfactions, it's hardly anything new. All party leaders always have negative satisfaction ratings - Nicola Sturgeon is the only leader I've ever seen with a positive satisfaction rating. Also it's barely a surprise that the 'satisfied' part of the question always corresponds to the wider poll percentage. What a surprise that most Conservative voters think that the Conservative leader is doing a good job and most non-Conservative voters don't. Though -18 for Corbyn is quite high given that about 30-40% of Labour Voters are dissatisfied with him in most polls.
barcode
Posts: 1473
Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

Mid Scotand and Fife is a big area and Tayside is more SNP than Fife. The fact SNP couldn't win either By election in Fife is kinda poor for all the talking big of there do. Cowdenbeath- Labour managed to retain broadly near what it go in the 2011 election. Yes there manged to get the MP seats, but the MP seats tend to swing like no ones back business, mainly kicking parties where it hurts.

By election in Scotland tend to get a higher turn out then the English mind you when it comes to most elections Scots turn out more than the English.
DTV
Posts: 125
Joined: Mon 12 Mar, 2012 19.27

barcode wrote:Mid Scotand and Fife is a big area and Tayside is more SNP than Fife. The fact SNP couldn't win either By election in Fife is kinda poor for all the talking big of there do. Cowdenbeath- Labour managed to retain broadly near what it go in the 2011 election. Yes there manged to get the MP seats, but the MP seats tend to swing like no ones back business, mainly kicking parties where it hurts.

By election in Scotland tend to get a higher turn out then the English mind you when it comes to most elections Scots turn out more than the English.
The Cowdenbeath by-election was in January 2014, the SNP's rise began in the Autumn of 2014 in the aftermath of the the Independence Referendum. Trying to compare pre-referendum and post-referendum results is like trying to accurately judge UKIP's performance in the 2015 general election from by-elections in 2011. Furthermore in the two recent Fife council by-elections the SNP held both Rosyth and Dunfermline North with impressive swings and those are additions to two other Fife council by-election gains earlier in the year. Since the Indie Ref Labour have only gained one seat in a by-election and that was off of the Greens, the SNP have however gained 3 seats off of Labour in council by-elections. I don't know what Fife by-elections you are referring to, but the SNP are doing much better than Labour at a local, regional, national and UK-wide level. Come May 5th it isn't a case of if the SNP will gain seats, it is a question of how many seats they'll gain.

On turnout, that is another thing that is post-Referendum. Since the 1980s Scotland had a record of even poorer turnout than England. Since Autumn 2014 turnout has been substantially higher in Scotland - in the General Election is what around 85% compared to England and Wales's 66%.
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