The Next Big election: May 2016.

barcode
Posts: 1473
Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

iSon wrote:
barcode wrote:I'll say this, Labour got more votes than the tories in Scotland, yet only got half the seats, explain that one...

Scotland:
SNP Scottish National Party 46.5
LAB Scottish Labour 22.6
CON Scottish Conservatives 22.0
LD Scottish Lib Dems 7.8
GRN Scottish Green Party 0.6
OTH OTHERS 0.5
And there say PR works?
You can't blame the system... Labour failed to win in enough of their constituencies under first past the post. The additional member system did pretty well at topping up - giving Labour 21 seats to the Conservatives 24. And that's right as the Tories polled better in the list vote.

On a personal level, I am surprised to see such a Conservative comeback. But, it just highlights the consolidation of the SNP as the governing party and the collapse of Labour as effective opposition. I've no doubt they will burn through a few more leaders before they find their level again.
Firstly I can blame the system, since there clearly something wrong somewhere. It was said back in 2011 aswell because its was still strange how the SNP managed to get its overall maj the way it did. PR is suppose to give X amount of seats to depending on how big the parties are.

Labour still manged to get more constituencies votes and that should have counted for more. In the Mid Scotland list seats over 120'000 votes for the SNP were thrown in the bin since there were never going to get a list msp. Thats the point it doesn't matter how much you get on the list, because its suppose to counter balance the constituencies vote. Its shame so many people failed to understand how the system works.....

Conservative comeback? Its taken 20 years, and its only in the place were there were original strong in the first place Aberdeenshire and Southern scotland. Its became clear to many; Labour had no idea and many people just wanted a proper opposition party to the SNP. So Ruth said I'll never win but I can make sure that woman can is kept in check, and so many thought whats the worse that could happen? It cant be any worse.
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WillPS
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I think overall it's a good result for Labour and for Corbyn. A loss of a single seat after 17 years of government in Wales is exceptional. A shame that the timing was such that UKIP gained a presence but I'm hopeful that those 4 seats will seem as anachronistic in 2021 as the remaining seats the BNP lost today did.

The 2012 council result was a particularly strong one for Labour and that they have basically not moved from that position is essentially a good result (considering the massive amount of share of the vote they shed by last year). The swing to Sadiq Khan is exceptional.

Of course the elephant in the room will be how Labour can get a majority without winning back Scotland. My expectation (and hope) is that Labour can get their English base sorted and enter in to a confidence & supply arrangement centred around pushing through voting reform.

Also interesting to see people (very slowly) returning to the Lib Dems. I think they have really struggled to find a voice since their near-decimation last year. Are people perhaps belatedly realising how effectively they restrained the Tories while in government?
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Philip
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Can I just say I'm glad to see London voting against a campaign of fear and ultimately racism.
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thegeek
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It's a shame that Labour didn't select a more inspiring candidate - but I am glad that Zac didn't win.
Martin Phillp
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Joined: Wed 11 May, 2011 01.28

thegeek wrote:It's a shame that Labour didn't select a more inspiring candidate - but I am glad that Zac didn't win.
Considering the mandate Khan received, I don't think a colourful candidate was required.
TVF's London Lite.
DTV
Posts: 125
Joined: Mon 12 Mar, 2012 19.27

WillPS wrote:I think overall it's a good result for Labour and for Corbyn. A loss of a single seat after 17 years of government in Wales is exceptional. A shame that the timing was such that UKIP gained a presence but I'm hopeful that those 4 seats will seem as anachronistic in 2021 as the remaining seats the BNP lost today did.

The 2012 council result was a particularly strong one for Labour and that they have basically not moved from that position is essentially a good result (considering the massive amount of share of the vote they shed by last year). The swing to Sadiq Khan is exceptional.

Of course the elephant in the room will be how Labour can get a majority without winning back Scotland. My expectation (and hope) is that Labour can get their English base sorted and enter in to a confidence & supply arrangement centred around pushing through voting reform.

Also interesting to see people (very slowly) returning to the Lib Dems. I think they have really struggled to find a voice since their near-decimation last year. Are people perhaps belatedly realising how effectively they restrained the Tories while in government?
I agree, I think one of the issues with comparison with 2012 is that is was such a high point for Labour and such a low point for the Conservatives that the Conservatives could not have done much worse and it would have been impressive had Labour gained anywhere. The Conservatives trying to claim it's a good result is ridiculous as they only did well in Scotland - in England they lost more councillors than Labour and lost over 7% of the vote in a year, in Wales they've been demoted to third and in London they lost the mayoralty and lost out to UKIP on the Assembly vote.

I actually think it was quite a good night for the Liberal Democrats in England - a 15% projected national share is very impressive considering that is double their vote last year. In Scotland they had a mixed bag - won constituency seats but ultimately made little gains and in Wales obviously didn't do so well.

With Scotland - I think it's becoming clear that it is a totally different political system and soon will begin to resemble Northern Irish politics. In the 60s the Northern Irish Labour Party was a cross-community, working class party but along came the new sectarian parties and they lost out to parties who took a stance on the issue like the SDLP - similar to what is happening to Scottish Labour. I wouldn't be surprised if in about 10/20 years we had a completely different party system north of the border. The Scottish Conservatives are already practically a separate party - none of their success can be put down to the Westminster government, it's nearly all Ruth Davidson and her leadership. In fact if they did separate and become only 'affiliated' like the Scottish Unionist Party before the 1960s then I reckon they could do even better.

Though any confidence and supply deal on voting reform would be great in my books - based on yesterday's results and the Vine/Curtice Commons projection a Labour/SNP/Lib Dem deal would have a majority.
barcode
Posts: 1473
Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

DTV wrote: With Scotland - I think it's becoming clear that it is a totally different political system and soon will begin to resemble Northern Irish politics. In the 60s the Northern Irish Labour Party was a cross-community, working class party but along came the new sectarian parties and they lost out to parties who took a stance on the issue like the SDLP - similar to what is happening to Scottish Labour. I wouldn't be surprised if in about 10/20 years we had a completely different party system north of the border. The Scottish Conservatives are already practically a separate party - none of their success can be put down to the Westminster government, it's nearly all Ruth Davidson and her leadership. In fact if they did separate and become only 'affiliated' like the Scottish Unionist Party before the 1960s then I reckon they could do even better.

Though any confidence and supply deal on voting reform would be great in my books - based on yesterday's results and the Vine/Curtice Commons projection a Labour/SNP/Lib Dem deal would have a majority.

Scottish tories never got back in, that easily. Every single leaflet had ruth face, and its pretty clear its been turned into the Ruth Davidson party. Another reason is alot of people are sick to death of Labour not pulling its finger oot its arse and marking those hard hitting blow against the SNP. Alas have we seen labour bottom out? NO the council elections are next year. Labour could get its crown back if there actually tried, scottish public have had enough and believe will whats the worse that could happen..... Corbyn isnt that well liked up north.... Don't believe this is( NEW 7% who voted for the tories) Scotland appreciating Tory policy some of the view ruth said in the debate went down like lead balloon, but she manged to come across very well causing trouble for that woman..


This might also explain why the tories won the south and parts of Aberdeenshire,
http://www.stuartmaclennan.co.uk/2016/0 ... -majority/
DTV
Posts: 125
Joined: Mon 12 Mar, 2012 19.27

barcode wrote:The Scottish Conservatives will never get back in that easily. Every single leaflet had Ruth's face on it, and it's pretty clear it has turned into the Ruth Davidson party. Another reason for Labour's poor showing is a lot of people are sick to death of Labour not pulling its finger out of its arse and making those hard hitting blow against the SNP. Have we seen Labour bottom out? NO - the council elections are next year and Labour could get its crown back if they actually tried. The Scottish public have had enough and believe what's the worst that could happen. Corbyn isn't that well liked up north - I don't believe this is Scotland appreciating Conservative policy. Some of the what Ruth said in the debate went down like a lead balloon, but she manged to come across very well by causing trouble for Nicola Sturgeon.
The tone of your post seems to be arguing against me, yet many of your points seem to concur with me. As I said Ruth Davidson is a significant reason for the success of the Scottish Conservatives, not the policy of the Conservative Party as a whole. One of Ruth's successes is distancing the Scottish Conservatives from the actions of the Westminster government as those policies are unpopular in Scotland. Instead she has set out her stall as that of the only real unionist party and she is succeeding at that. Another element of her success is creating an image of being an equal to Nicola Sturgeon by essentially becoming the unionist equivalent.

In comparison Scottish Labour hasn't got a clear raison d'etre or a leader who appears to be capable of tackling Nicola Sturgeon. The Scottish electorate clearly wants a unionist opposition that is comparable in ability to the nationalist government - Scottish Labour don't offer this. And as for Labour bottoming out, Scottish Labour has been doing down hill since devolution and it has been their own failure to realise this that has caused the results to be potentially more embarrassing than they need had been. They became complacent and didn't see 2007 coming, they didn't see 2015 coming and they didn't see this coming. Many people before the referendum were saying how nationalists always got a boost after separatist referendums even with a no vote and Labour didn't plan for this and they certainly still haven't got a post-referendum position and this is costing them dearly.

I think this is part of a wider elections attitude problem within Labour, though. Every election defeat is always somebody else's fault - their attitude to their 2015 Scottish defeat was the SNP took Labour votes not Labour lost votes to the SNP; Labour's general attitude to their 2015 election defeat was everything but their lack of a coherent, unique or inspiring set of policies. I think Scottish Labour need to admit they've fucked up and they need to set out a more unionist stance even if it costs them their odd nationalist voter if they want voters to return. Complacency with the electorate always leads to a disaster - the UUP were complacent with the unionist vote in Northern Ireland and didn't see the sudden swing to the DUP coming; the Conservatives got complacent with the Eurosceptic vote and didn't see UKIP coming in 2013; and Scottish Labour has got complacent with voters. Similarly Welsh Labour are too complacent with their ever dwindling vote - just 19 years ago Labour got 60% of the vote in Wales, now it's only a third and their attitude doesn't reflect this.

Scottish Labour's defeat in Scotland is primarily their own fault. I'm of the Bevanite Socialist tradition and if I were voting in Scotland they wouldn't of got either of my votes and even in an STV system they'd be at least my third preference if not lower.
barcode
Posts: 1473
Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

It just so confusing what has happened at this election, but I agree whats been said else where. Keep an eye out on the Scottish council election next May if the tories improve in southern Scotland and Tayside/Aberdeenshire then the SNP really is in trouble, because its losing its centre right middle ground voters. So Labour might just need to steady the ship until Summer of 2017 before overhauling the party and start a proper fight back. It will need a decent leader who can steam roll the SNP and the Tories.

Just look at this map: The red areas are where the SNP's vote share decreased from 2011.
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/7 ... 7915639809
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