The Next Big election: May 2016.

barcode
Posts: 1473
Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

In 2016 will have a lot of different elections taken place:

* Alot English council elections are up for grabs
* Scottish, Welsh and NI elections
* London mayoral election

This will be the first test of Jeremy Corbyn, depending on which part your looking at, since he'll have no effect in Scotland, alot alone parts of wales. Could we see Lib dems coming back from the brink? Will UKIP co to continue improve? Can the tories keep hold of London? Will the SNP managed to get more seats?

I think this will be another interesting year.
DTV
Posts: 125
Joined: Mon 12 Mar, 2012 19.27

barcode wrote:In 2016 will have a lot of different elections taken place:

* Alot English council elections are up for grabs
* Scottish, Welsh and NI elections
* London mayoral election

This will be the first test of Jeremy Corbyn, depending on which part your looking at, since he'll have no effect in Scotland, alot alone parts of wales. Could we see Lib dems coming back from the brink? Will UKIP co to continue improve? Can the tories keep hold of London? Will the SNP managed to get more seats?

I think this will be another interesting year.
I can't believe you failed to mention the exciting PCC elections, the one's nobody has been waiting for.

I think Corbyn will have to get 35% or more in the English local elections in order to keep the party from revolting, as the Assembly elections are all pretty much decided on before we start. In Scotland the SNP will likely gain about 10 seats, with the Scottish Greens making gains. I think in the long run the Scottish Greens are possibly the main challengers to SNP supremacy given they are also pro-independence but don't have the tarnish of government. In Wales Labour may lose the odd seat and UKIP will make gains on the proportional list with the Lib Dems losing some seats. In Northern Ireland nothing will change, as per usual, although UKIP may pick up the odd MLA. In London it'll probably be a Labour-led Assembly and a Labour Mayor, though Goldsmith isn't too far behind Sadiq in the polls. In the council elections little will probably change.

The UKIP surge has ended, the only reason there will be any differences this year is the last elections for the Assemblies predated the UKIP surge. The Greens (EW) are now losing votes to Labour and the Lib Dems have made no recovery in the polls - in fact in the Welsh Polls their vote has halved since 2011 and that was at the height of their unpopularity. The only party that'll make any discernible difference are the Scottish Greens who regularly poll in the high single digits and have occasionally polled 3rd on the regional vote. Small parties like the NHA may gain the odd Councillor but really the elections will probably be quite dull and predictable. Even if Labour topple Corbyn he'll only be replaced by another like minded figure by the members. For any real political fallout you'll have to wait until after the EU Referendum when the Conservative Civil War starts - if we stay in the Eurosceptics will revolt, if we leave and Boris has campaigned for leave we could even see a coup for the leadership.
barcode
Posts: 1473
Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

Scottish Greens are only getting back to where there were in 2003, also it doubt greens will become th emain challengers, there more chance of the Tories.

I cant see the SNP getting 79 seats, especial since Aberdeenshire is turmoil over the oil etc
all new Phil
Posts: 1641
Joined: Sun 13 Feb, 2005 00.04
Location: Next door to Hell

I think Goldsmith will win in London. He's well liked in his constituency and would represent the city well. Sadiq Khan just comes across as a bit dull and uninspiring.

I'd also be amazed if Labour do anything other than appallingly everywhere else. They are an absolute mess.
Thought this was a nice forum, clearly not.
Martin Phillp
Posts: 1016
Joined: Wed 11 May, 2011 01.28

all new Phil wrote:I think Goldsmith will win in London. He's well liked in his constituency and would represent the city well. Sadiq Khan just comes across as a bit dull and uninspiring.

I'd also be amazed if Labour do anything other than appallingly everywhere else. They are an absolute mess.
If Goldsmith gets in, it'll be down to Labour voters putting him as their second preference.

Whatever the country feels about Corbyn, inner London voters will still vote Khan regardless of who's in charge of the party (Boris came second in Southwark and Lewisham for example), so like Boris, it'll be down to outer London borough voters who tend to vote Conservative for Mayor.

Whoever gets in, it's the end of the colourful politics we've seen from Johnson and Livingstone before him, with two solid and capable politicians who are more than capable of getting the job done.
TVF's London Lite.
barcode
Posts: 1473
Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

If Labour can't win London, then there really is big trouble ahead.
DTV
Posts: 125
Joined: Mon 12 Mar, 2012 19.27

barcode wrote:Scottish Greens are only getting back to where there were in 2003, also it doubt greens will become th emain challengers, there more chance of the Tories.

I cant see the SNP getting 79 seats, especial since Aberdeenshire is turmoil over the oil etc
However the Scottish Green's, and to a lesser extent the SSP's, fall in 2003 was largely down to an increase in SNP support. This time around the Scottish Green's rise is parallel to the SNP's rise and is not denting support for the SNP. Given that by the end of this next government the SNP will have been in power longer than New Labour, the Scottish Greens would be the party to pick up voters who were unhappy with the SNP's government record, they'll have probably cocked something up by 2021. The Scottish Greens are also pro-independence and would be able to pick up disaffected SNP voters, should they cock something up. Plus Labour are hanging on by a thread in Scotland, the Conservatives will be even more unpopular by the end of this UK parliament, the Lib Dems are ineffectual and increasingly irrelevant and UKIP are seen as too English to have any success in Scotland. A separate political climate is evolving North of the Border, just like Northern Ireland in the early 1970s but, thankfully, without the violence. I wouldn't be surprised if the Scottish Conservatives returned to their pre-65 image and autonomy.
barcode
Posts: 1473
Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

DTV wrote:
barcode wrote:Scottish Greens are only getting back to where there were in 2003, also it doubt greens will become th emain challengers, there more chance of the Tories.
I cant see the SNP getting 79 seats, especial since Aberdeenshire is turmoil over the oil etc
However the Scottish Green's, and to a lesser extent the SSP's, fall in 2003 was largely down to an increase in SNP support. This time around the Scottish Green's rise is parallel to the SNP's rise and is not denting support for the SNP. Given that by the end of this next government the SNP will have been in power longer than New Labour, the Scottish Greens would be the party to pick up voters who were unhappy with the SNP's government record, they'll have probably cocked something up by 2021. The Scottish Greens are also pro-independence and would be able to pick up disaffected SNP voters, should they cock something up. Plus Labour are hanging on by a thread in Scotland, the Conservatives will be even more unpopular by the end of this UK parliament, the Lib Dems are ineffectual and increasingly irrelevant and UKIP are seen as too English to have any success in Scotland. A separate political climate is evolving North of the Border, just like Northern Ireland in the early 1970s but, thankfully, without the violence. I wouldn't be surprised if the Scottish Conservatives returned to their pre-65 image and autonomy.
You mean 2007 ;) I'll agree with you about the Greens, I heard alot of YES voters were actually green, and actually give the SNP their votes for 2015 but this time around many have said there wont be given SNP their votes in 2016 in either of the ballots. Big question has to be will it manage to get 8-9% of the vote in a each of the others? I have my doubts.

Don't right off Scottish labour just yet its has hit rock bottom, but at 25% it no good to man nor beast. It also controls the most councils in Scotland and also has 4 outright control, now that some doing in PR. It can still win By elections.

You can't just dismiss UKIP it got EU seat from Scotland which its claimed never saw it coming. Weather it gets a seat this time around not likely, unless you had some very unhappy tory voters.
DTV
Posts: 125
Joined: Mon 12 Mar, 2012 19.27

barcode wrote:You mean 2007 ;) I'll agree with you about the Greens, I heard alot of YES voters were actually green, and actually give the SNP their votes for 2015 but this time around many have said there wont be given SNP their votes in 2016 in either of the ballots. Big question has to be will it manage to get 8-9% of the vote in a each of the others? I have my doubts.

Don't right off Scottish labour just yet its has hit rock bottom, but at 25% it no good to man nor beast. It also controls the most councils in Scotland and also has 4 outright control, now that some doing in PR. It can still win By elections.

You can't just dismiss UKIP it got EU seat from Scotland which its claimed never saw it coming. Weather it gets a seat this time around not likely, unless you had some very unhappy tory voters.
With 8-9% in other elections, the Scots Greens only really contest in PR elections as they know that is their strong point - hence they don't compete in the FPTP element. 8-9% could be about 8 MSPs. UKIP on the other hand - their performance in Euro elections is nothing to take note of other than for general trends - the fact is in EU elections nearly all UKIP voters vote where as voters from other parties don't really bother and some Eurosceptic Conservative and Labour voters vote UKIP as some form of protest. I've seen and done a few forecasts of the Scottish Parliament election and none seem to give UKIP any MSPs.
all new Phil
Posts: 1641
Joined: Sun 13 Feb, 2005 00.04
Location: Next door to Hell

barcode wrote:If Labour can't win London, then there really is big trouble ahead.
Why? The current mayor is a conservative. There'd be no more trouble than there is already.
Thought this was a nice forum, clearly not.
User avatar
WillPS
Posts: 2069
Joined: Tue 22 Apr, 2008 18.32
Location: Carlton
Contact:

all new Phil wrote:
barcode wrote:If Labour can't win London, then there really is big trouble ahead.
Why? The current mayor is a conservative. There'd be no more trouble than there is already.
There would be in the Labour party.

Boris was/is seen as a bigger "character". Miliband was ultimately forgiven the 2012 Mayoral election on that basis.

The expectation is that Corbyn and the Labour Party generally should start mopping up amongst the most savage of the cuts (which are probably still to come in this Spring's Budget).

I'm pretty much at my wits end with democracy as it stands in this country. Our system is a joke, and when a glimmer of hope comes in the form of Corbyn it's pretty crushing to watch the establishment move to destroy him from all angles. I believe in the bloke, I think he's great - and yet I can't vote for a party when those representing it are so hellbent on undermining their democratically leader.

I'm hugely jealous of the Scots who it seems have managed to carve out for themselves a form of democracy that delivers for its people.
Image
Please Respond