2015 UK Election

DTV
Posts: 127
Joined: Mon 12 Mar, 2012 19.27

Peter Crossley wrote:However the final say on selecting the audience is made not by market research group by by a senior BBC official.
Even if that were true, those senior BBC officials are real lefties aren't they - increasing their salary and expenses at the behest of the license fee payer while making the hardworking, creative employees redundant or cut back during 'streamlining'. Those BBC executives who introduced and relish in the internal market mechanism and producer choice are real lefties. It is utter bollocks to say the BBC rigged the audience. It was split along party support levels which would make UKIP voters around 10-15% of the audience. Only a shoddy workman blames his tools - and floundering Farage (despite being quite a tool) blamed the audience because he wasn't having the best of nights. Nigel Farage is going into a tail spin because he knows not only was he the least likely person on that panel to have power or influence in the next government, but it's likely he won't be UKIP leader this time next year as more likeable and pragmatic persons within UKIP line themselves up to usurp him (such as Suzanne Evans) and he will probably not win Thanet South.

On a separate note, during the Daily Politics today - Andrew Neil (coincidentally one of those BBC leftie board members of a Tory-supporting magazine) referenced not being legally allowed to mention something to do with constituencies when talking to Margaret Curran. Does anybody know what that is? I thought it could be about predicting individual results, but I'm not to sure.
cwathen
Posts: 1168
Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 17.28

My prediction - absolutely nothing will change and we will end up with a second Tory-Lib Dem coalition.

I don't believe either the Conservatives or Labour have made significant enough inroads over the last 5 years to win with a majority but they are still the two biggest parties by a country mile. The PM will be either Cameron or Milliband - end of.

The Lib Dems will continue to be a distant 3rd party - and after being seen to do a deal with the devil last time and get little out of it they may become a more distant 3rd - but cruicially they will still themselves be a country mile ahead of whatever the 4th place party is.

And then we come to the fringe parties. It is commonplace at election time for fringe parties to punch above their weight and be polled as if they might become a 3rd party to overtake the Lib Dems, but then it never happens.

Yes I believe they could grow but in reality this will means that the SNP might have 8 Westminster MPs rather than 6, UKIP might have 3 instead of 2, the Greens might have 2 instead of 1 etc etc. Either way the fringe parties will continue to have no real clout in Westminster.

When it comes down to it I believe Cameron has done just enough to come out on top again (but not with a majority) and however much they might be distancing themselves during the campaign, he will end up offering another coalition to the Libdems which they will take - as the sitting PM Cameron is in a stronger position than Milliband in the event of a very close result. Nick Clegg will save face by proclaiming that he's learned from the last coalition deal and has secured a 'better deal' for the LibDems this time which will supposedly see them play a bigger role and get more of their policies through which then won't happen, and we'll roll on to 2020
Alexia
Posts: 2975
Joined: Sat 01 Oct, 2005 17.50

cwathen wrote: The Lib Dems will continue to be a distant 3rd party - and after being seen to do a deal with the devil last time and get little out of it they may become a more distant 3rd - but cruicially they will still themselves be a country mile ahead of whatever the 4th place party is.

And then we come to the fringe parties. It is commonplace at election time for fringe parties to punch above their weight and be polled as if they might become a 3rd party to overtake the Lib Dems, but then it never happens.

Yes I believe they could grow but in reality this will means that the SNP might have 8 Westminster MPs rather than 6, UKIP might have 3 instead of 2, the Greens might have 2 instead of 1 etc etc. Either way the fringe parties will continue to have no real clout in Westminster.
What polling data have you been reading? All indicators point to SNP on course for 40-50 seats, Libs on 25-30. This is not flash in the pan outriding polling either, this is consistent, steady polling including constituency-specific polling showing Lab>SNP swings of up to 35%. Unless Lord Ashcroft has been trolling us all....
barcode
Posts: 1473
Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

Alexia wrote:
cwathen wrote: The Lib Dems will continue to be a distant 3rd party - and after being seen to do a deal with the devil last time and get little out of it they may become a more distant 3rd - but cruicially they will still themselves be a country mile ahead of whatever the 4th place party is.

And then we come to the fringe parties. It is commonplace at election time for fringe parties to punch above their weight and be polled as if they might become a 3rd party to overtake the Lib Dems, but then it never happens.

Yes I believe they could grow but in reality this will means that the SNP might have 8 Westminster MPs rather than 6, UKIP might have 3 instead of 2, the Greens might have 2 instead of 1 etc etc. Either way the fringe parties will continue to have no real clout in Westminster.
What polling data have you been reading? All indicators point to SNP on course for 40-50 seats, Libs on 25-30. This is not flash in the pan outriding polling either, this is consistent, steady polling including constituency-specific polling showing Lab>SNP swings of up to 35%. Unless Lord Ashcroft has been trolling us all....
Ashcroft could be trolling Scotland, the tory he is :twisted: :lol: cwathen must have been drinking something when he wrote that. Nothing is set in stone, you cant rule out UKIP getting six seats, ( there doing very localised campaigning in 10-15 seats ) nor the SNP doubling or x5 its seats. Nor can we rule out the tories or labour getting 300.
all new Phil
Posts: 1663
Joined: Sun 13 Feb, 2005 00.04
Location: Next door to Hell

I predict that, other than the massive SNP gains in Scotland, a lot of the rest of the UK will stay as it is already - except for maybe a few Tory gains at the expense of the Lib Dems in the South West.

I know I keep saying it but I just can't see there being any swing to Labour from the Tories.
Thought this was a nice forum, clearly not.
Alexia
Posts: 2975
Joined: Sat 01 Oct, 2005 17.50

What about the UKIP factor.... The splintering of right wing votes into two factions? Also the disaffected left-leaning ex-LD voters?
all new Phil
Posts: 1663
Joined: Sun 13 Feb, 2005 00.04
Location: Next door to Hell

I don't think the UKIP factor will be anything like the polls suggest. They'll split the right about as much as the greens will split the left.
Thought this was a nice forum, clearly not.
barcode
Posts: 1473
Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

It all goes down one vote, and do you know how many seats have maj less than 1000? 100? You only need to get a few more than someone else to win, it means it very easy for 30 seats to change hands.
Alexia
Posts: 2975
Joined: Sat 01 Oct, 2005 17.50

barcode wrote:It all goes down one vote, and do you know how many seats have maj less than 1000? 100? You only need to get a few more than someone else to win, it means it very easy for 30 seats to change hands.
Once again, thankyou for telling us how elections work.
barcode
Posts: 1473
Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

Alexia wrote:
barcode wrote:It all goes down one vote, and do you know how many seats have maj less than 1000? 100? You only need to get a few more than someone else to win, it means it very easy for 30 seats to change hands.
Once again, thankyou for telling us how elections work.
You are pedantic at the moment.
all new Phil
Posts: 1663
Joined: Sun 13 Feb, 2005 00.04
Location: Next door to Hell

barcode wrote:It all goes down one vote, and do you know how many seats have maj less than 1000? 100? You only need to get a few more than someone else to win, it means it very easy for 30 seats to change hands.
But believe it or not, for all those vocal voters who hate the Tories and want them out, there are also plenty who are quite satisfied that the country is doing pretty well, that wages are going up, and that we have a government who are reasonably in control. I genuinely believe that more people will choose to stick with the Tories as we get closer to polling day.

We've had cuts. The world hasn't ended.
Thought this was a nice forum, clearly not.
Please Respond