2015 UK Election

Alexia
Posts: 2975
Joined: Sat 01 Oct, 2005 17.50

robschneider wrote:
Alexia wrote:Rob, go away son. You're embarrassing.
Ah yes. Voting anything other than Labour is unacceptable, isn't it.
I'm not voting Labour. And voting UKIP certainly IS unacceptable. I think all UKIP voters are mentally deranged.
robschneider
Posts: 295
Joined: Wed 14 Aug, 2013 14.53

To be fair, the Prime Minister was called the same thing a bit further up the thread. I'm not justifying my "poetry" but just putting that out htere.

For what it's worth...

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barcode
Posts: 1473
Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

Alexia wrote:
robschneider wrote:
Alexia wrote:Rob, go away son. You're embarrassing.
Ah yes. Voting anything other than Labour is unacceptable, isn't it.
I'm not voting Labour. And voting UKIP certainly IS unacceptable. I think all UKIP voters are mentally deranged.
To rob I never said you should vote Labour ;)

To Alexia I disagree about UKIP voters.
Alexia
Posts: 2975
Joined: Sat 01 Oct, 2005 17.50

barcode wrote:To Alexia I disagree about UKIP voters.
Well as soon as you reach a well-researched, coherent, informed decision about...er...well...anything, let us know.
barcode
Posts: 1473
Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

Alexia wrote:
barcode wrote:To Alexia I disagree about UKIP voters.
Well as soon as you reach a well-researched, coherent, informed decision about...er...well...anything, let us know.
You cant just right those voters off, who voted UKIP. How does anyone explain how UKIP managed to get MEP in Scotland. Those voters are hacked off and want something different. Love it or hate their voters which do cover a wide range of aspect have to be acknowledge. It no different to the Scottish voters switching to SNP.
Alexia
Posts: 2975
Joined: Sat 01 Oct, 2005 17.50

The European Parliament elections are no more of a bellweather predictor of a General Election than a squid in a tank in Germany is a predictor of the World Cup Final result.

When you look at the numbers, UKIP's Euro MEPs came on the back of a 25% vote share in an election in which only 35% of the electorate turned out - 8.75% of the vote. UKIP's sole Scottish MEP came in 5th out of 5, with even more pitiful ratings - 10% of a 33% turnout, 3.3%. UKIP got 140k votes in Scotland... Lab+SNP got 737k votes. Now who's more representative of Scotland's wishes.

The reason UKIP always perform well in the Euro Elections because, while the rest of us see them as mostly an irrelevance, UKIP members are acutely aware of the EU and the Europarl. They have nightmares about it INTERFERING IN THEIR LIVES! They know about how much SOVEREIGNTY IS DEVOLVED TO BRUSSELS! How the UK has LOST CONTROL!!

And all that other bullshit. There has already been a concerted lurch to the right from all three Londonist parties, including Labour printing "controls on immigration" on their mugs. They're all trying to out-UKIP UKIP. Conveniently forgetting the country is dominated by sane, normal, centrist folk who hate everything UKIP stand for and who want to see them destroyed. That's why Scotland is going hand-over-fist to the SNP - they're claiming the ground that Jim and his Labour cohorts have abandoned.
barcode
Posts: 1473
Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

Alexia wrote: That's why Scotland is going hand-over-fist to the SNP - they're claiming the ground that Jim and his Labour cohorts have abandoned.
My point still stand SNP and UKIP are tapping in to section of the public who dislike the 3 main parties. I still believe UKIP will get around 5 seats in this election. I do wonder if the SNP can really get that 50 + seats.
Alexia
Posts: 2975
Joined: Sat 01 Oct, 2005 17.50

barcode wrote:
Alexia wrote: That's why Scotland is going hand-over-fist to the SNP - they're claiming the ground that Jim and his Labour cohorts have abandoned.
My point still stand SNP and UKIP are tapping in to section of the public who dislike the 3 main parties.
REALLY is THAT what they're doing?! My god how come we didn't see this before?!
DTV
Posts: 127
Joined: Mon 12 Mar, 2012 19.27

barcode wrote:
Alexia wrote: That's why Scotland is going hand-over-fist to the SNP - they're claiming the ground that Jim and his Labour cohorts have abandoned.
My point still stand SNP and UKIP are tapping in to section of the public who dislike the 3 main parties.
While it is true that UKIP, the SNP and the Greens are tapping into a section of the electorate who dislike the 3 Westminster parties, UKIP and the SNP are two different cases and must be treated as such.

UKIP are probably going to be a one/two election cycle wonder - they'll make a fuss, unsettle the main parties and end up merging with one of the major parties. Much like the SDP who heralded the end of 3 party politics and commanded a similar share of the vote. UKIP also relies entirely on one factor - Nigel Farage - without him UKIP would not be in a similar situation, they may have experienced a slight rise in vote but too much of the UKIP force is down to the Farage factor. Therefore if, and it is a likely if, he doesn't win South Thanet then he will (supposedly) stand aside as leader creating a way for Carswell or one of the other charisma vacuums to stand in his place. UKIP are in a similar situation to the referendum party of '97 - the same platform, the same politics, the same focus on the leader.

On the other hand, the SNP aren't this sudden new force in politics. Scotland has had a four party system since 1974 and it is just now that a different party is dominating the landscape - much like the sudden replacement of the UUP with the DUP in Northern Ireland. The rise of the SNP was to be expected, referenda of similar calibre create nationalism and it has been going on quitely for years particularly in Holyrood elections. The fact of the matter is that Scotland hasn't actually changed ideologically or abandoned Labour - Labour abandoned them by moving to the right and Scotland has been slowly readjusting to that. Whereas UKIP will probably be nothing more than a subsection in a political textbook in 15 years time, the SNP are here to stay - there party support will wax and wane much like any other party but the two Holyrood parties are the SNP and Labour - much like the Conservatives and Labour are the Westminster parties for the UK as a whole.

UKIP is a protest vote against the major parties - it isn't a genuine alternative, UKIP have no realistic chance of being high ranked in a government, the SNP do on the other hand. The SNP isn't a protest vote, it's people voting consistently across Holyrood and Westminster elections. On EU elections, Alexia has basically summed up the situation there.
bilky asko
Posts: 1187
Joined: Sat 08 Nov, 2008 19.48

Do you think the Green Party is a protest vote? Or, perhaps more pertinently, do you think that the majority of people voting for them will be protest-voting?
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robschneider
Posts: 295
Joined: Wed 14 Aug, 2013 14.53

bilky asko wrote:Do you think the Green Party is a protest vote? Or, perhaps more pertinently, do you think that the majority of people voting for them will be protest-voting?
I would say absolutely. They'll pick up a lot of younger people, particularly students who generally tend to lean towards the left anyway.
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