2015 UK Election

barcode
Posts: 1473
Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

I've notice a number of website and people make predictions about who are most likely to win this election. Its becoming very big business it seems.

* http://electionsetc.com/
* http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
* http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/
* http://www.election2015.co.uk/
* http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general ... -know.html

It seems the Telegraph are the only ones making since, No one can state anything until after the scottish ref vote, because if Scotland leaves the Tories are going to win. Mind you the Guardain would make you think otherwise.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... l-election

What other peoples views on the outcome or are there any big factors which will come into play?
Square Eyes
Posts: 630
Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 13.38

What springs to mind is the awfulness of the personalities in politics these days. Cameron, Milliband & Clegg - all bland all basically occupying the centre ground. This era of politics is ghastly.
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WillPS
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barcode wrote:I've notice a number of website and people make predictions about who are most likely to win this election. Its becoming very big business it seems.

* http://electionsetc.com/
* http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
* http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/
* http://www.election2015.co.uk/
* http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general ... -know.html

It seems the Telegraph are the only ones making since, No one can state anything until after the scottish ref vote, because if Scotland leaves the Tories are going to win. Mind you the Guardain would make you think otherwise.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... l-election

What other peoples views on the outcome or are there any big factors which will come into play?
I think The Guardian have it; and their logic is probably the logic which will comfort the average Labour-voting Scot in to voting 'No'. Just as the Republicans are utterly screwed in the US, the Conservatives are screwed in the UK.

Oh, and UKIP are screwed too. I doubt their ability to deliver a result of more than double their 2010 performance in 2015, and *even if they somehow did* they'd still get bugger all in Westminster which will effectively disenfranchise the idiots who do vote for them.
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robschneider
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Joined: Wed 14 Aug, 2013 14.53

Impossible to call. It's not unrealistic to expect UKIP to come third. The Lib Dems will get a kicking for sure.

I want the Conservatives to win but ultimately I think it'll be a Labour victory, and if that happens we really are screwed. I don't like Labour simply because their policy of punishing the rich is, in my view, anti-enterprise. It discourages people who aspire to be the next Branson or Sugar, and we need new, young, enterprise and SMEs in order to grow.

Socialism is ultimately flawed because at some point, you run out of someone else's money.
DTV
Posts: 126
Joined: Mon 12 Mar, 2012 19.27

robschneider wrote:Impossible to call. It's not unrealistic to expect UKIP to come third.
In Terms of popular vote, UKIP could probably come third. In terms of Seats it will be totally improbable. Due to First Past the Post I will be surprised if UKIP even claim one seat - the problem is that FPTP is a majoritarian single-seat constituency system so relies heavily on parties having support in one area, their are some Lib Dem strongholds where a swing would have to be pretty huge to even unseat them, on the other hand polling suggests that with UKIP there are two types of people those who are willing to vote UKIP (at best 20%) and those who hate UKIP, so although you don't even need 50% of the vote to win a seat - there are more people prepared to vote to keep UKIP out than are to vote UKIP in.

Of course, with the Scottish Referendum it is the deciding factor in Labour's success next year. If they vote to go Labour will lose 41 seats they currently hold - so that would be a major factor in deciding the election result next year. Another problem for Labour is their support base are beginning to look else where. Their right-wing working class voters have nearly all gone to UKIP so they have lost a key historic support base, Miliband has failed to move Labour significantly back to the left Post-Blair so some of Labour's left-wing support base have gone to Left Alternatives such as Respect or the Greens and in Scotland the SNP.

The Greens are another interesting case - some polls have recently shown that they are level-pegging with the Lib Dems! They also beat the Lib Dems in the Euros (although the Euros are always a mid-term protest vote) and in the Newark By-election came fifth, with the Lib Dems in Sixth. The Greens are also official opposition on four/five councils and control one council (more than UKIP) so they could throw up some interesting results too.

I would expect a 'just' Labour Majority if Scotland stay in or a Hung Parliament if Scotland leave with Labour and Conservatives almost equal. In Summer 2009 the Tories were a good 10 or more points ahead in the polls where as this time around Labour are barely more than a few points ahead of the Tories. But then the political landscape is a foreign one (Farage wouldn't approve) compared to that of five years ago.
ASO
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Joined: Wed 12 Feb, 2014 17.03

robschneider wrote:It discourages people who aspire to be the next Branson or Sugar, and we need new, young, enterprise and SMEs in order to grow.
Come on, if that's the case, why is Sugar Labour's biggest ever donor?
barcode
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Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

Republicans are utterly screwed in the US, the Conservatives are screwed in the UK.
Mainly because we have a crap leader, and over in the USA there have no proper leader. Neither of the mainstream right wing parties, have any ideas how to improve the country or BETTER STILL cut the budget, UK still browning more the last Labour government, in the USA spending it getting worse aswell.

That saying People cant complain about labour's spending, the Tories did the same in 1980/1981 and again 1991-1993. ;) All parties bad for turning on the tapes...

It very possible for anyone to win the election in 2015, but not in the current climate being offered. Where are you going find a party who will actually cut the budgets and bring GDP spending back down to around 37-36% while protecting public services.

While on the Lib dems there going to get a right battering, I cant see how there can keep some of there seats, especial around Scotland. SNP are not going to pick seats, and could actually lose seats, to labour to try and help buffer them up. Look at 2010, SNP win in 2007 but everyone come flooding back to keep the Tories away, it will happening again.

Overall I do not like ed.
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WillPS
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Forget leadership - the overall trends (in decades/half-centuries, not years) are against them. There is a (largely) quiet majority of people who expect progression and not selfish gain.
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DJDave
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Location: Wirral

robschneider wrote:
I want the Conservatives to win but ultimately I think it'll be a Labour victory, and if that happens we really are screwed. I don't like Labour simply because their policy of punishing the rich is, in my view, anti-enterprise. It discourages people who aspire to be the next Branson or Sugar, and we need new, young, enterprise and SMEs in order to grow.
Typical tory voter, sod the poor and let's make the rich even richer :o
all new Phil
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Is it just me that wishes a party existed that just had the best bits of the ones we have now? I mean, I like the Tories for their economic management, but I don't like a lot of their social policies. I admire Labour's desire for good schools and hospitals, but they're a bunch of incompetent hand-wringers.

I think what I'd ultimately like is for the Tories to move to the left a bit, but that will never happen without the dinosaurs of the party revolting.
Thought this was a nice forum, clearly not.
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Pete
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robschneider wrote:Socialism is ultimately flawed because at some point, you run out of someone else's money.
what happens when you run out of cliches?
"He has to be larger than bacon"
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