Public Transport in your particular part of the region

[cwathen]

First retain the TPE franchise (minus Keolis); Arriva gain Northern. hashtagnorthernpowerhouse

The press release mentions a lot of 'new carriages' - are they actually building new things, or are some D-Trains actually making it into service?

The franchise spec would appear to specifically rule them out - the way it reads they can only use DMUs falling into one of 3 categories:

1) They are existing stock/same as existing stock (except for pacers)
2) Other cascaded Sprinters/Turbostars
3) They are new - and it is specifically stated that trains rebuilt from old trains are not new, pretty much pissing all over the class 230 project.

I'm still somewhat dubious as to how they are going to achieve pacer withdrawal by 2019 - we are talking about a situation where in 4 years time they need to be retiring the last of their pacers - this involves a total of 102 trains - a third of the units they have at present - being replaced by new trains by then. Not starting to replace them, not have a plan to replace them or be in the process of replacing them but actually be at the end stage of getting rid of them. This is an entirely different situation to pacer withdrawal on GWR which only involves scrapping 8 trains with replacement stock already identified, or for that matter on Valley lines, where 230's seem to be acceptable as replacements.

I don't see this as being a likely achievable goal when earlier attempts to withdraw a small number have proved unworkable, when no new trains are ordered, the class 230's would seem to be ruled out and when there is no obvious stock cascade big enough to cover this (and when prior experience shows stock cascades can take longer than expected - eg when FGW borrowed some 142s for 18 months expecting a cascade of 150/1s, but then ended up keeping them for 4 years when the cascade took much longer than originally planned)

I await the embarassing climb down where Pacers are permitted to work diagrams of short journeys / run as extra capacity coupled to a compliant unit / 'withdrawal by the end of 2019' to be retconned into 'in the process of withdrawal by the end of 2019' etc etc. Either that, or they get withdrawn before replacements are ready to come on stream, capacity reduces, services are pulled and a public backlash sees them being quickly pressed back into service as an emergency measure.

[Pete]

It doesn't seem to help matters that Bombardier seem to be loathe to take any orders for extra 172s. They gave a daft price back to TfL for extra trains for the overground meaning that electrification became the only viable solution.

[thegeek]

It doesn't seem to help matters that Bombardier seem to be loathe to take any orders for extra 172s. They gave a daft price back to TfL for extra trains for the overground meaning that electrification became the only viable solution.

I thought electrification of the GOBLIN was due to freight demands - which were also preventing any increase in frequency for passenger services?

[WillPS]

It doesn't seem to help matters that Bombardier seem to be loathe to take any orders for extra 172s. They gave a daft price back to TfL for extra trains for the overground meaning that electrification became the only viable solution.

I don't think it's as simple as that, sadly. First of all, the Turbo/Electrostar series of trains is now dead, the jigs for construction have gone and going back would be expensive. The engines, even those used in the 172s, are no longer compliant; nor is the front end design.

The prospect of them ever getting a sizeable DMU order in the UK is diminished considerably by immediately upcoming electrification and also IEP. The potential returns on such a project aren't lucrative.

Finding a ROSCO willing to buy them would be tricky too. Once the major TransPennine lines and Midland Main Line are done, with infill and some reshaping (e.g. splitting Liverpool - Norwich at Nottingham) it's conceivable that the vast majority of the former Central Trains network could be run with EMUs. Similar story for all the services between Blackpool and Crewe, and Sheffield right up to Newcastle. None of this will happen tomorrow but it's pretty plain to see that's the way it's going.

[cwathen]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35376805
Electrification on GWR now knocked back up to 4 years, no PAD-BRI electric services until 2020, and with Oxford routes also being delayed, presumably this has also delayed sending the Turbos to run Bristol area services, which in turn will also delay 158s returning to West services. And for that matter, will the West fleet still be able to withdrawn their 8 pacers on time if the stock cascade can't be completed by the end of 2019?

[Alexia]

Depots are complete though. Filton Triangle and Swansea Maliphant pretty much ready, wires aside, and will now sit doing f-all for 5 years.

Wonder what will happen when ScotRail come asking for their HSTs?

[WillPS]

Well, the bi-mode stuff will allow at least some of them to be withdrawn.

[thegeek]

TfL to take over all suburban rail services in London!

...except it's just a proposal, and it's not all of them, and it's not happening any time soon. London Reconnections has the level-headed detail

[cwathen]

Depots are complete though. Filton Triangle and Swansea Maliphant pretty much ready, wires aside, and will now sit doing f-all for 5 years.

Wonder what will happen when ScotRail come asking for their HSTs?

Weren't CrossCountry supposed to be getting some more HSTs out of this too?

[Alexia]

Weren't CrossCountry supposed to be getting some more HSTs out of this too?

Heard rumblings but nothing concrete.

[cwathen]

http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/02/04/fir ... franchise/

Firstgroup are shortlisted to run against South West Trains (Stagecoach) for the South Western franchise. A little concerned that it's Firstgroup TBH. Obviously the big prize up for grabs with this franchise is the South East electric services, but SWT of course also operate diesel services from Waterloo-Exeter/Bristol. This is one of the few examples on the network of genuine competition - being able to choose between two companies and two completely different routes to travel between the same two places, with each having their pros and cons.

If First were to get it, these routes clearly won't be their primary motivation for bidding for the franchise any more than the ex-Wessex services were the reason they bid for the Greater Western franchise. Would they just view them as unnecessary duplication of GWR services and an annoyance which they'd rather not have?

If they've just invested big bucks on electrification and new trains on GWR, what possible motivation would they have to invest on the diesel routes of the South Western franchise? How much promotion would go into the idea of travelling from Exeter to London on a 25 year old class 159 unit vs their new shiny Hitachi trains?

Would this also mean potential job losses as Firstgroup as a whole would end up in a position where they were operating 3 TMDs in the West (Exeter, St Philips Marsh, and would inherit Salisbury from SWT), which are all fairly easy to run between and are all capable of servicing all the diesel units which both the franchises would operate?

I'm all up for Stagecoach to be given a run for their money after holding this franchise for 20 years, but not really sure First taking it on would be a good thing for trains services in this part of the country.