High Street chain collapse sweepstake

g67bbx
Posts: 51
Joined: Sat 06 Jan, 2018 08.18

Time I think for my "Who to watch in 2020" post.

Winners:
TESCO - Strong Christmas period, but more changes to come.
Greggs - All staff to receive a share of £7m bonus.
Next - generally doing well.
The German discounters - as normal.
Primark - offers more than just clothes now, it's the experience.

In the Middle:
WHSmith - I expect more of the same. high street down but travel up.
Marks and Spencer - They are starting to improve and focus on what the customer wants. There won't be miracles but things are on the up. However, over-ordering remains an issue for them.

Losers:
Superdry - Impacted by heavy discounting from other retailers. The share price plunged amid profit warning.
Debenhams - Already closing stores, how many more will go.
John Lewis - It is suspected that partners will miss out on their bonus this year. Partners are unlikely to stay loyal to the brand, resulting in many resignations i suspect.
Argos - let down the empire over Christmas, store changes to come?
Morrisons - Left behind by the other supermarkets. Outdated processes and technology not helping.
Arcadia group - we'll see.
Italian restuarant chains. (i.e. Carluccio's, Pizza Express etc.)
HMV
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cdd
Posts: 2531
Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 14.05

I’m putting all the chain Italian restaurants in the “negative outlook” category. I don’t think the bloodshed of 2019 is nearly over yet, and there’s still about a million of them. Carluccios has started widely discounting now too, which they never used to do.
Martin Phillp
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Joined: Wed 11 May, 2011 01.28

HMV continues to be volatile, closing more stores this month due to landlord issues. If Sunrise Records can't make the business viable, then I think it's finally game over for a business reliant on physical media sales.

As for Argos, their issues at Christmas were down to axing their traditional 3 for 2 on toys promotion, which saw sales drop 10%. Personally I think Sainsbury's are in the right direction by opening concessions in stores and having smaller units on the High Street with an emphasis on click and collect or home delivery.
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all new Phil
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M&S have clearly realised that there is more money in food given how much focus it is being given. I reckon they’ll open more food-only stores.

Primark seem to be getting bigger and bigger, branching out into themed cafes etc. I’m not sure how it fits alongside cheapo clothing but they’ve figured out that gullible millennials will Instagram anything that vaguely looks like something to do with Disney or Friends. The Central Perk cafe in their Manchester store had a huge queue last time I was there.
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Martin Phillp
Posts: 919
Joined: Wed 11 May, 2011 01.28

all new Phil wrote:
Fri 10 Jan, 2020 23.38


Primark seem to be getting bigger and bigger, branching out into themed cafes etc. I’m not sure how it fits alongside cheapo clothing but they’ve figured out that gullible millennials will Instagram anything that vaguely looks like something to do with Disney or Friends. The Central Perk cafe in their Manchester store had a huge queue last time I was there.
The main issue I have with Primark is the tight targeting of millennial women. The range for men is still broad, but if you're an older female looking for a bargain, there isn't much there.

Rival Pep & Co seems to have a slightly broader range for women, but who really goes to Poundland to buy clothes?
TVF's London Lite.
thegeek
Posts: 535
Joined: Sat 04 Jun, 2005 12.35

I wonder if Primark is going to suffer slightly with a climate-based backlash against fast fashion; or if its core demographic isn't bothered enough to take its business elsewhere.
g67bbx
Posts: 51
Joined: Sat 06 Jan, 2018 08.18

cdd wrote:
Fri 10 Jan, 2020 16.47
I’m putting all the chain Italian restaurants in the “negative outlook” category. I don’t think the bloodshed of 2019 is nearly over yet, and there’s still about a million of them. Carluccios has started widely discounting now too, which they never used to do.
I agree with you. there is too much competition on the Italian dining market. It'll affect all of them.
g67bbx
Posts: 51
Joined: Sat 06 Jan, 2018 08.18

Martin Phillp wrote:
Fri 10 Jan, 2020 23.12
HMV continues to be volatile, closing more stores this month due to landlord issues. If Sunrise Records can't make the business viable, then I think it's finally game over for a business reliant on physical media sales.

As for Argos, their issues at Christmas were down to axing their traditional 3 for 2 on toys promotion, which saw sales drop 10%. Personally I think Sainsbury's are in the right direction by opening concessions in stores and having smaller units on the High Street with an emphasis on click and collect or home delivery.
I agree with your Argos view. The "store in store" format is the way forward.
Where I am we have one in the Sainsbury's store in town and one a mile up the road on a small retail park with home bargains and dreams. On the edge of a housing estate. The one in Sainsbury's was queuing over Christmas. The other, bigger one has (most of the time) one person working the till and bringing out the stock. It's a matter of convenience.
gottago
Posts: 129
Joined: Thu 29 Jan, 2009 19.50

g67bbx wrote:
Sat 11 Jan, 2020 08.35
cdd wrote:
Fri 10 Jan, 2020 16.47
I’m putting all the chain Italian restaurants in the “negative outlook” category. I don’t think the bloodshed of 2019 is nearly over yet, and there’s still about a million of them. Carluccios has started widely discounting now too, which they never used to do.
I agree with you. there is too much competition on the Italian dining market. It'll affect all of them.
I was at the O2 last night and was amazed at how there were only three tables of customers at Pizza Express. It wasn't a show night but still Nando's and even continually struggling Byron were packed. Pizza Express felt like an untouchable chain restaurant until pretty recently so it's really surprising to see.
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WillPS
Posts: 1999
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Location: Carlton
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Martin Phillp wrote:
Fri 10 Jan, 2020 23.12
HMV continues to be volatile, closing more stores this month due to landlord issues. If Sunrise Records can't make the business viable, then I think it's finally game over for a business reliant on physical media sales.
In fairness to Sunrise Records, all these current closures appear to be locations which were originally closed/meant to close following the purchase out of administration last year. Clearly some short term arrangement was made which is not being renewed.

That said, I went in to the Meadowhall branch this week and was surprised to find that other than 'Store Closing' signage literally nothing in store was any different to any other store. The shop was fully stocked, and other than the standard 'HMV sale' bullshit there were no reductions. I rather suspect that some negotiations between the company and their landlords are ongoing, and these posters are a pretty thin bargaining chip.

HMV as the chain we all know from the last 20 years is going, there are no two ways about it. The only chance for survival is for the new Vault concept - https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... birmingham

The same can't be said for Game however, who are totally fucked once the next generation of consoles hit the shelves (likely pushing more and more towards a subscription model).

I wont miss either chain.
gottago wrote:
Sat 11 Jan, 2020 09.53
g67bbx wrote:
Sat 11 Jan, 2020 08.35
cdd wrote:
Fri 10 Jan, 2020 16.47
I’m putting all the chain Italian restaurants in the “negative outlook” category. I don’t think the bloodshed of 2019 is nearly over yet, and there’s still about a million of them. Carluccios has started widely discounting now too, which they never used to do.
I agree with you. there is too much competition on the Italian dining market. It'll affect all of them.
I was at the O2 last night and was amazed at how there were only three tables of customers at Pizza Express. It wasn't a show night but still Nando's and even continually struggling Byron were packed. Pizza Express felt like an untouchable chain restaurant until pretty recently so it's really surprising to see.
Pizza Express is going to eventually come down with an almighty thud. They are carrying the equivalent of £2.3m of debt for each every one of their 480 locations. Quite how they have got to this position is pretty remarkable.

I expect the chain will continue though, albeit much reduced.

Carluccios I'm not so sure about.
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Pete
Posts: 7161
Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 13.36
Location: Dundee

gottago wrote:
Sat 11 Jan, 2020 09.53
g67bbx wrote:
Sat 11 Jan, 2020 08.35
cdd wrote:
Fri 10 Jan, 2020 16.47
I’m putting all the chain Italian restaurants in the “negative outlook” category. I don’t think the bloodshed of 2019 is nearly over yet, and there’s still about a million of them. Carluccios has started widely discounting now too, which they never used to do.
I agree with you. there is too much competition on the Italian dining market. It'll affect all of them.
I was at the O2 last night and was amazed at how there were only three tables of customers at Pizza Express. It wasn't a show night but still Nando's and even continually struggling Byron were packed. Pizza Express felt like an untouchable chain restaurant until pretty recently so it's really surprising to see.
They've recently taken several popular dishes off their menu that had been there for a very long time claiming they'd just refreshed it. I wonder if this has had a big impact. The chicken wings are very tasty, but not very Italian. Whereas the antipasti sharing board was far more inkeeping.
"He has to be larger than bacon"
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