The OFFICIAL* Metropoll election sweepstake

Ant
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Joined: Sat 15 May, 2004 13.48
Location: Edinburgh

WillPS wrote:What I'd like (unrealistic): Lib Dem majority

What I'd like (realistically): Hung Parliament with Lib Dems getting a foot in with the balance of power

What I think will happen: Conservative landslide (but not quite on a 1997 scale).
Exactly my views.

Labour have been in far too long and the country is clearly in a mess. I went off them entirely when Blair quit.
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Sput
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Joined: Wed 20 Aug, 2003 19.57

I am going to play devil's advocate: How is it clearly a mess? The trains run on time, we have electricity and running water, economically things are improving and better than in other countries, and we don't have plague, pestilence or mob rule.
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Jovis
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Sput wrote:I am going to play devil's advocate: How is it clearly a mess? The trains run on time, we have electricity and running water, economically things are improving and better than in other countries, and we don't have plague, pestilence or mob rule.
I was saying a similar thing to a group of friends this week. They're all fairly right-wing (I'm not) and I wondered exactly how they'd been affected negatively by Labour - or could explain why the country was suddenly broken. They couldn't.
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Sput
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There was one instance on the news when someone asked a sound bite woman "how do you mean, exactly" when she said the country was going to the dogs and she was useless. I loved it! I think if they want to report what "the people" think then they should also expose how ill-informed their opinions are!
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cat
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The plain truth is that people just get bored of Governments. The problem is that they don't see the Tories as being all that different from the incumbents, which explains why their poll ratings are pretty unimpressive.

I don't think you should expect a Tory landslide. I would expect them to win but with a slim (if workable) majority. There are a lot of 'orphan seats' out there, with no continuity candidate because the sitting MP is standing down. There's also the TV debates to come; the manifestos to be torn to pieces by the press; the budget to be delivered; and the campaign proper to begin.

Cameron hasn't sealed the deal with voters. It's a combination of people being not as fed up with Labour now as they were with the Tories in 1997 and not as thrilled about the prospect of Cameron coming in as they were about Blair.
all new Phil
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I suspect Brown may win a few votes from the Piers Morgan interview tonight, if the trailers are anything to go by. I'm not sure I'm entirely comfortable with it to be honest, it all looks a bit too orchestrated to make him look good. I'm predicting the humble "I know I've made mistakes" routine.
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Pete
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Sput wrote:There was one instance on the news when someone asked a sound bite woman "how do you mean, exactly" when she said the country was going to the dogs and she was useless. I loved it! I think if they want to report what "the people" think then they should also expose how ill-informed their opinions are!
This is a rather nice story full of statistics and graphs regards brokken brittin http://www.economist.com/opinion/displa ... d=15452867

One thing it does mention, which I'd never considered before, is the decline of local rags in favour of national drivvel sheets means that instead of those shootings last year being viewed as a London problem, the Mail causes it to be seen as a national issue.
"He has to be larger than bacon"
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Parbold 103.53
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London issues have always been seen as national ones - in the eyes of most of the media, UK=London. What the switch to national papers has done is to bring to light provincial issues that would previously never have been covered 'nationally' (i.e. in London).

Anyway, back to the election. I agree with those who see a slim Conservative majority, and that pleases me. Not necessarily because of the party in question, but because of the scale. Governments with huge majorities can steam-roller any legislation through, whereas those with smaller majorities actually have to pay attention to those around them.

Personally, though, I am seriously debating whether or not to vote, for the first time in nearly 20 years that I have been eligible to do so. The reason? I have recently moved into a constituency (Makerfield, held with an 18,000 majority and Labour since 1906) where Labour could stick a red rosette on a donkey and everyone would still vote for it. Is it really worth turning out, whichever way I feel inclined to vote?
barcode
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Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

Labour up here seems to be leading the polls over that SNP, which should ( 43% ) this should kept labour all its seats it won in 2005. Tories are moving up in the world, which could let them win back 3 seats. I doubt it!

SO David speech fell FLAT! :lol:

Does anyone informations about there local voting polls whos in the lead?
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iSon
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As insightful as some of your posts can be, can we please leave the whole "the Tories are never going to win in Scotland" argument for now. It seems every post ends in such a statement. I'm not one to nail my political colours to the mast but I wish they would just win a blessed constituency in Scotland (other than Dumfrieshire of course) so we can put the whole thing to bed.

I think it's worth pointing out that in terms of vote share Labour lost out a hell of a lot as did the SNP - mainly to the Lib Dems in the 2005 general election. The Conservative picked up a few votes but obviously not enough to make a massive difference. There's a few constituencies where the majority is slim and if the vote if split then David Cameron could do slightly better than you think.

More interesting though is to see whether the Lib Dems can build on their previous gains to perhaps cause an upset or two?
Good Lord!
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Pete
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Indeed the Tories have been increasing their share of the vote in Holyrood, mainly due to the regional vote rather than constituency vote but nevertheless. Oh and they also have the Borders not forget.

Now in places like Glasgow which are Darlington style "well my father voted Labour" moronfests then yes, they don't hae a cat in hell's chance but elsewhere there is the possibility of Tory gains.
"He has to be larger than bacon"
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